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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1525

Alex CaceresvsChase HooperUFC Prediction Result

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Saturday, June 6, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsChase Hooper: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Chase Hooper wins(82.6%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Hooper at -195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chase Hooper threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alex Caceres has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Chase Hooper

Blue Corner

+168

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-195

(66%)

1500

Elo

1525

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Chase Hooper

oldest →

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 24

vs Jim Miller · Apr 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Aug 25

KOvs Lance Gibson Jr. · Mar 26

SUBvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricChase Hooper

4.21

Strikes / min

4.50

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

62%

Strike defense

39%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

2.43

64%

Takedown defense

55%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresChase Hooper

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Chase Hooper(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.0|Blue +25.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetChase Hooper

By target zone

58% acc · 77%

Head

23% acc · 72%

81% acc · 13%

Body

79% acc · 21%

92% acc · 11%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

60% acc · 82%

Distance

26% acc · 87%

83% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

78% acc · 14%

Ground

75% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Chase Hooper rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:04

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control1:15

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 164

Sig Strikes

53 / 187

61.3%

Sig Str %

28%

109 / 170

Total Strikes

60 / 197

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:31

Ctrl Time

2:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chase Hooper	16 / 71	16 / 72	0 / 1
1	Alex Caceres	33 / 56	35 / 58	1 / 1
2	Chase Hooper	15 / 49	17 / 52	0 / 1
2	Alex Caceres	26 / 45	27 / 46	0 / 0
3	Chase Hooper	22 / 67	27 / 73	0 / 0
3	Alex Caceres	44 / 63	47 / 66	0 / 0

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Chase Hooper

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14