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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · SUB R1

Elo1500

Elo1492

Alex CaceresvsAustin SpringerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Saturday, August 29, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:38

Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsAustin Springer: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Austin Springer wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Springer at +176 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Caceres has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Austin Springer has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alex Caceres

Red Corner

Austin Springer

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+176

(36%)

1500

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Austin SpringerNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alex CaceresMetricAustin Springer

4.21

Strikes / min

3.54

3.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

62%

Strike defense

41%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

3.37

64%

Takedown defense

100%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alex CaceresAustin Springer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alex Caceres(10 fights)Austin Springer(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.3|Blue -7.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -47.7|Blue +47.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alex CaceresTargetAustin Springer

By target zone

50% acc · 61%

Head

18% acc · 21%

100% acc · 22%

Body

40% acc · 14%

60% acc · 17%

Leg

90% acc · 64%

By position

58% acc · 100%

Distance

42% acc · 93%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alex Caceres rounds

even

Austin Springer rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:10

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 31

Sig Strikes

14 / 32

58%

Sig Str %

43%

18 / 31

Total Strikes

14 / 32

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austin Springer	14 / 32	14 / 32	0 / 1	0
1	Alex Caceres	18 / 31	18 / 31	0 / 0	1

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29

Austin Springer

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights1