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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Nico Musoke won · Submission R1
Elo1353
Elo1360

Alessio SakaravsNico MusokeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · Saturday, October 26, 2013Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Nico Musoke won

Submission · Round 1 · 3:07

Model Prediction: Alessio Sakara wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Nico Musoke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alessio Sakara at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alessio Sakara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alessio Sakara
Red Corner
VS
Nico Musoke
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1353
Elo
1360
44
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessio SakaraL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs James Irvin · Mar 10
L
vs Chris Weidman · Mar 11
L
KOvs Brian Stann · Apr 12
L
vs Patrick Cote · Nov 12
latest
Nico MusokeL2 streak
oldest →
W
DECvs Viscardi Andrade · Feb 14
L
DECvs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 14
W
DECvs Alexander Yakovlev · Oct 14
L
DECvs Albert Tumenov · Jan 15
L
KOvs Bojan Velickovic · May 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessio SakaraMetricNico Musoke
3.96
Strikes / min
—
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
—
59%
Strike defense
—
2.18
TDs / 15 min
—
62%
Takedown defense
—
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1462 vs 1500Strikes19.9 vs —Takedowns0.7 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-0.9 vs 0.0
Alessio SakaraNico Musoke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Alessio Sakara(5 fights)Nico Musoke(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -7.9|Blue +7.9
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Alessio Sakara

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5

Nico Musoke

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3