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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Alessio Sakara won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
Elo1351

Alessio SakaravsJames IrvinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Alessio Sakara won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:01

Model Prediction: Alessio Sakara wins(68.6%)

Actual result: Alessio Sakara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alessio Sakara at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alessio Sakara enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Alessio Sakara is a KO finisher (100% of wins). James Irvin has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Alessio Sakara has 24pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alessio Sakara has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alessio Sakara
Red Corner
VS
James Irvin
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
1353
Elo
1351
44
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessio SakaraL4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Chris Weidman · Mar 11
L
KOvs Brian Stann · Apr 12
L
vs Patrick Cote · Nov 12
L
SUBvs Nico Musoke · Oct 13
latest
James Irvin
oldest →
L
SUBvs Igor Pokrajac · Aug 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessio SakaraMetricJames Irvin
3.96
Strikes / min
2.03
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
3.86
59%
Strike defense
35%
2.18
TDs / 15 min
0.00
62%
Takedown defense
36%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16Δ 2.99 — meaningful gap-1.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes20.8 vs 5.3Takedowns1.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.13Form0.0 vs 0.0
Alessio SakaraJames Irvin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Alessio Sakara(5 fights)James Irvin(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessio SakaraTargetJames Irvin

By target zone

7
32% acc · 54%
Head
2
18% acc · 33%
4
80% acc · 31%
Body
0
2
100% acc · 15%
Leg
4
80% acc · 67%

By position

12
43% acc · 92%
Distance
6
38% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 8%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alessio Sakara rounds
0
even
0
James Irvin rounds
Round 1Alessio Sakara edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
13 / 29
Sig Strikes
6 / 16
44%
Sig Str %
37%
13 / 29
Total Strikes
6 / 16
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Irvin6 / 166 / 160 / 00
1Alessio Sakara13 / 2913 / 290 / 00

Alessio Sakara

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5

James Irvin

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights2