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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Weidman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1494

Alessio SakaravsChris WeidmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlessio Sakara: WrestlervsChris Weidman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alessio Sakara wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alessio Sakara at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessio Sakara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alessio Sakara is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Chris Weidman has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alessio Sakara

Red Corner

Chris Weidman

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1353

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessio SakaraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs James Irvin · Mar 10

KOvs Brian Stann · Apr 12

vs Patrick Cote · Nov 12

SUBvs Nico Musoke · Oct 13

latest

Chris Weidman

oldest →

DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessio SakaraMetricChris Weidman

3.96

Strikes / min

3.11

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

59%

Strike defense

51%

2.18

TDs / 15 min

3.27

62%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.16Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alessio SakaraChris Weidman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alessio Sakara(5 fights)Chris Weidman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -141.9|Blue +141.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessio SakaraTargetChris Weidman

By target zone

22% acc · 41%

Head

39% acc · 87%

73% acc · 41%

Body

83% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

33% acc · 74%

Distance

35% acc · 56%

63% acc · 19%

Clinch

29% acc · 4%

67% acc · 7%

Ground

69% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alessio Sakara rounds

even

Chris Weidman rounds

Round 1Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:03

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 3Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 71

Sig Strikes

45 / 105

37.7%

Sig Str %

45%

34 / 79

Total Strikes

98 / 171

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 8

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

8:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Weidman	14 / 46	16 / 48	0 / 3
1	Alessio Sakara	10 / 29	10 / 29	0 / 0
2	Chris Weidman	17 / 28	45 / 62	2 / 2
2	Alessio Sakara	10 / 23	11 / 24	0 / 0
3	Chris Weidman	14 / 31	37 / 61	3 / 3
3	Alessio Sakara	7 / 19	13 / 26	0 / 0

Alessio Sakara

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20