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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Zak Cummings won · U-DEC R3

Elo1434

Elo1499

Alessio Di ChiricovsZak CummingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Saturday, August 29, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Zak Cummings won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlessio Di Chirico: Well-roundedvsZak Cummings: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Zak Cummings wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Zak Cummings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zak Cummings at -109 American odds

+$92 profit

$192 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessio Di Chirico has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Zak Cummings (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alessio Di Chirico

Red Corner

Zak Cummings

Blue Corner

-114

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-109

(52%)

1434

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessio Di ChiricoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Holland · Jun 19

vs Makhmud Muradov · Sep 19

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Jan 21

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Aug 21

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 22

latest

Zak Cummings

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · May 18

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessio Di ChiricoMetricZak Cummings

3.32

Strikes / min

2.96

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

61%

Strike defense

55%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

0.62

83%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alessio Di ChiricoZak Cummings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alessio Di Chirico(10 fights)Zak Cummings(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.9|Blue +64.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessio Di ChiricoTargetZak Cummings

By target zone

26% acc · 62%

Head

30% acc · 63%

55% acc · 23%

Body

73% acc · 20%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

33% acc · 98%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alessio Di Chirico rounds

even

Zak Cummings rounds

Round 1Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 157

Sig Strikes

54 / 139

33.7%

Sig Str %

39%

53 / 157

Total Strikes

54 / 139

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zak Cummings	12 / 29	12 / 29	0 / 0
1	Alessio Di Chirico	18 / 44	18 / 44	0 / 2
2	Zak Cummings	17 / 43	17 / 43	0 / 0
2	Alessio Di Chirico	15 / 49	15 / 49	0 / 0
3	Zak Cummings	25 / 67	25 / 67	0 / 0
3	Alessio Di Chirico	20 / 64	20 / 64	0 / 0

Alessio Di Chirico

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14