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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Alessio Di Chirico won · S-DEC R3

Elo1434

Elo1481

Alessio Di ChiricovsJulian MarquezUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alessio Di Chirico won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlessio Di Chirico: Well-roundedvsJulian Marquez: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Julian Marquez wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Alessio Di Chirico wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Marquez at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Marquez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alessio Di Chirico is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Marquez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Alessio Di Chirico has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alessio Di Chirico has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alessio Di Chirico

Red Corner

Julian Marquez

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1434

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessio Di ChiricoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Makhmud Muradov · Sep 19

vs Zak Cummings · Aug 20

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Jan 21

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Aug 21

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 22

latest

Julian MarquezL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Apr 21

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 22

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 23

KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24

KOvs Cody Brundage · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessio Di ChiricoMetricJulian Marquez

3.32

Strikes / min

5.06

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

61%

Strike defense

50%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

0.00

83%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alessio Di ChiricoJulian Marquez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alessio Di Chirico(10 fights)Julian Marquez(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.0|Blue +47.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessio Di ChiricoTargetJulian Marquez

By target zone

33% acc · 60%

Head

23% acc · 60%

74% acc · 28%

Body

76% acc · 34%

86% acc · 12%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

45% acc · 96%

Distance

30% acc · 89%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

83% acc · 11%

14% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alessio Di Chirico rounds

even

Julian Marquez rounds

Round 1Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:17

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:36

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:06

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 116

Sig Strikes

47 / 147

41.7%

Sig Str %

32%

55 / 122

Total Strikes

49 / 149

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

72%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:59

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Marquez	11 / 48	11 / 48	0 / 1	0
1	Alessio Di Chirico	19 / 45	19 / 45	1 / 1	0
2	Julian Marquez	17 / 39	18 / 40	0 / 0	2
2	Alessio Di Chirico	9 / 28	13 / 33	2 / 3	0
3	Julian Marquez	19 / 60	20 / 61	0 / 0	0
3	Alessio Di Chirico	22 / 43	23 / 44	1 / 2	0

Alessio Di Chirico

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11

Julian Marquez

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8