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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alessandro Costa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1543

Elo1406

Alessandro CostavsStewart NicollUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Alessandro Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:56

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Alessandro Costa

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Alessandro Costa at -400 American odds · hypothetical only

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Model Prediction: Alessandro Costa wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Alessandro Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stewart Nicoll enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alessandro Costa has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alessandro Costa

Red Corner

Stewart Nicoll

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1543

Elo

1406

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessandro CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Steve Erceg · Nov 23

KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24

KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25

KOvs Matt Schnell · Jun 26

SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26

latest

Stewart NicollL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jesus Aguilar · Aug 24

vs Lucas Rocha · Oct 25

DECvs Alden Coria · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessandro CostaMetricStewart Nicoll

3.73

Strikes / min

3.63

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

5.84

56%

Strike defense

49%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

1.63

86%

Takedown defense

28%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap-2.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alessandro CostaStewart Nicoll

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alessandro Costa(8 fights)Stewart Nicoll(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.9|Blue -136.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessandro CostaTargetStewart Nicoll

By target zone

39% acc · 60%

Head

36% acc · 55%

85% acc · 26%

Body

75% acc · 26%

67% acc · 14%

Leg

90% acc · 19%

By position

48% acc · 95%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alessandro Costa rounds

even

Stewart Nicoll rounds

Round 1Stewart Nicoll edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Alessandro Costa edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:18

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 89

Sig Strikes

47 / 99

48%

Sig Str %

47.5%

47 / 97

Total Strikes

47 / 99

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 5

66%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stewart Nicoll	27 / 59	27 / 59	0 / 1
1	Alessandro Costa	20 / 46	20 / 46	0 / 0
2	Stewart Nicoll	20 / 40	20 / 40	0 / 4
2	Alessandro Costa	23 / 43	27 / 51	2 / 3

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Alessandro Costa

Odds

-400

Market-implied probability

Alessandro Costa 76%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Alessandro Costa (model pick · research)$125

Stewart Nicoll$400

76% market-implied · model 56% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Alessandro Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Stewart Nicoll

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4