← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alessandro Costa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1543

Elo1486

Alessandro CostavsKevin BorjasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Alessandro Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:35

Style matchupAlessandro Costa: Well-roundedvsKevin Borjas: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Alessandro Costa wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Alessandro Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Kevin Borjas has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Alessandro Costa has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alessandro Costa

Red Corner

Kevin Borjas

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1543

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessandro CostaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Steve Erceg · Nov 23

KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25

KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26

KOvs Matt Schnell · Jun 26

SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26

latest

Kevin Borjas

oldest →

vs Joshua Van · Nov 23

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Sumudaerji · Aug 25

KOvs Imanol Rodriguez · Feb 26

DECvs Andre Lima · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessandro CostaMetricKevin Borjas

3.73

Strikes / min

3.96

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

56%

Strike defense

49%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.00

86%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap-1.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alessandro CostaKevin Borjas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alessandro Costa(8 fights)Kevin Borjas(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.0|Blue -57.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessandro CostaTargetKevin Borjas

By target zone

48% acc · 70%

Head

27% acc · 67%

40% acc · 4%

Body

50% acc · 28%

80% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

45% acc · 54%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

71% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alessandro Costa rounds

even

Kevin Borjas rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alessandro Costa edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:38

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 86

Sig Strikes

18 / 56

54%

Sig Str %

27.5%

60 / 104

Total Strikes

18 / 56

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Borjas	15 / 38	15 / 38	0 / 2
1	Alessandro Costa	16 / 45	16 / 45	0 / 2
2	Kevin Borjas	3 / 18	3 / 18	0 / 0
2	Alessandro Costa	30 / 41	44 / 59	0 / 0

Alessandro Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Kevin Borjas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7