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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alessandro Costa won · Submission R2

Elo1543

Elo1458

Alessandro CostavsCody DurdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Alessandro Costa won

Submission · Round 2 · 2:19

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Cody Durden

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Cody Durden at +188 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupAlessandro Costa: Well-roundedvsCody Durden: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alessandro Costa wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Alessandro Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessandro Costa has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alessandro Costa

Red Corner

Cody Durden

Blue Corner

-229

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1543

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessandro CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Steve Erceg · Nov 23

KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24

KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25

KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26

KOvs Matt Schnell · Jun 26

latest

Cody Durden

oldest →

vs Joshua Van · Dec 24

KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessandro CostaMetricCody Durden

3.73

Strikes / min

3.24

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

56%

Strike defense

50%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

3.99

86%

Takedown defense

56%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alessandro Costa(8 fights)Cody Durden(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +84.9|Blue -84.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessandro CostaTargetCody Durden

By target zone

42% acc · 71%

Head

32% acc · 75%

57% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 7%

33% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

42% acc · 90%

Distance

38% acc · 96%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

67% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alessandro Costa rounds

even

Cody Durden rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:01

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 49

Sig Strikes

28 / 73

42%

Sig Str %

43.5%

25 / 53

Total Strikes

30 / 75

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Durden	17 / 53	19 / 55	0 / 2	0
1	Alessandro Costa	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Cody Durden	11 / 20	11 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Alessandro Costa	5 / 12	9 / 16	0 / 0	2

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Alessandro Costa

Odds

-229

Market-implied probability

Cody Durden 33%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Alessandro Costa$144

Cody Durden (model pick · research)$288

33% market-implied · model 54% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at +188 · never rewritten

Alessandro Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17