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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alden Coria won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1543

Elo1554

Alessandro CostavsAlden CoriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alden Coria won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:47

Style matchupAlessandro Costa: Well-roundedvsAlden Coria: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Alden Coria wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Alden Coria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alden Coria at +275 American odds

+$275 profit

$375 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessandro Costa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Alden Coria has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alessandro Costa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alessandro Costa

Red Corner

Alden Coria

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1543

Elo

1554

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessandro CostaW4 streak

oldest →

vs Steve Erceg · Nov 23

KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24

KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26

KOvs Matt Schnell · Jun 26

SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26

latest

Alden CoriaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Luis Gurule · Feb 26

DECvs Stewart Nicoll · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessandro CostaMetricAlden Coria

3.73

Strikes / min

4.69

3.72

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

56%

Strike defense

69%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

1.75

86%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap+2.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alessandro CostaAlden Coria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alessandro Costa(8 fights)Alden Coria(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.6|Blue +10.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessandro CostaTargetAlden Coria

By target zone

19% acc · 58%

Head

40% acc · 81%

17% acc · 8%

Body

33% acc · 2%

31% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

21% acc · 100%

Distance

37% acc · 69%

Clinch

Ground

81% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alessandro Costa rounds

even

Alden Coria rounds

Round 1Alden Coria edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:01

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alden Coria edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:23

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:15Control

Round 3Alden Coria edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 56

Sig Strikes

42 / 95

23.3%

Sig Str %

50%

14 / 59

Total Strikes

77 / 131

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 2

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

3:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alden Coria	20 / 57	20 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Alessandro Costa	10 / 48	10 / 48	0 / 2	0
2	Alden Coria	12 / 19	47 / 55	2 / 2	0
2	Alessandro Costa	1 / 4	3 / 7	1 / 1	2
3	Alden Coria	10 / 19	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Alessandro Costa	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 1	0

Alessandro Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8

Alden Coria

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3