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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Walt Harris won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1402

Aleksei OleinikvsWalt HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Walt Harris won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:12

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsWalt Harris: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(83.0%)

Actual result: Walt Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Walt Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Walt Harris is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Walt Harris has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Walt Harris has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Walt Harris (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Walt Harris

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1495

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'5"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Walt HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Spitz · Jun 18

KOvs Serghei Spivac · May 19

KOvs Alistair Overeem · May 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricWalt Harris

3.29

Strikes / min

3.05

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

44%

Strike defense

54%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

0.29

37%

Takedown defense

70%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikWalt Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Walt Harris(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +93.6|Blue -93.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetWalt Harris

By target zone

0% acc

Head

40% acc · 50%

100% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 50%

0% acc

Leg

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 50%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Walt Harris rounds

Round 1Walt Harris edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 3

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

33%

Sig Str %

57%

1 / 3

Total Strikes

4 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Walt Harris	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Walt Harris

StanceSouthpaw

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights15