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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Oleinik won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1359

Aleksei OleinikvsViktor PestaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · Sunday, January 15, 2017Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:57

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsViktor Pesta: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Viktor Pesta has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Viktor Pesta has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Viktor Pesta

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1495

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Viktor PestaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ruslan Magomedov · May 14

vs Konstantin Erokhin · Jan 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Oct 15

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricViktor Pesta

3.29

Strikes / min

1.58

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

44%

Strike defense

56%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

3.29

37%

Takedown defense

100%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikViktor Pesta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Viktor Pesta(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.2|Blue -136.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +24.0|Blue -24.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetViktor Pesta

By target zone

33% acc · 57%

Head

37% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 43%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 43%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Viktor Pesta rounds

Round 1Viktor Pesta edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:34

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 15

Sig Strikes

7 / 19

46%

Sig Str %

36%

11 / 19

Total Strikes

18 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

1:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Viktor Pesta	7 / 19	18 / 31	1 / 1	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	7 / 15	11 / 19	0 / 0	1

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Viktor Pesta

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights5