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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Oleinik won · SUB R2

Elo1495

Elo1400

Aleksei OleinikvsMaurice GreeneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Saturday, January 18, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:38

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Maurice Greene

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1495

Elo

1400

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'7"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Maurice GreeneL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Junior Albini · Jun 19

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Oct 19

SUBvs Gian Villante · Jun 20

KOvs Greg Hardy · Oct 20

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricMaurice Greene

3.29

Strikes / min

3.28

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

44%

Strike defense

45%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

0.00

37%

Takedown defense

27%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikMaurice Greene

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Maurice Greene(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.0|Blue -95.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetMaurice Greene

By target zone

21% acc · 57%

Head

40% acc · 77%

100% acc · 29%

Body

50% acc · 8%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

25% acc · 57%

Distance

38% acc · 77%

Clinch

100% acc · 23%

50% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Maurice Greene rounds

Round 1Aleksei Oleinik edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control4:13

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Aleksei Oleinik edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:12

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 22

Sig Strikes

13 / 29

27%

Sig Str %

46.5%

25 / 46

Total Strikes

38 / 54

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:25

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Maurice Greene	3 / 6	26 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	1 / 7	5 / 11	2 / 2	1
2	Maurice Greene	10 / 23	12 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Aleksei Oleinik	6 / 15	20 / 35	1 / 1	2

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Maurice Greene

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8