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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Oleinik won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1374

Aleksei OleinikvsJunior AlbiniUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:45

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsJunior Albini: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Albini enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Junior Albini is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Junior Albini has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aleksei Oleinik has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Junior Albini

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1495

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Junior AlbiniL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tim Johnson · Jul 17

vs Andrei Arlovski · Nov 17

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 19

KOvs Maurice Greene · Jun 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricJunior Albini

3.29

Strikes / min

3.98

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

6.08

44%

Strike defense

52%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

1.54

37%

Takedown defense

100%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-2.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikJunior Albini

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Junior Albini(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.4|Blue -121.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetJunior Albini

By target zone

50% acc · 60%

Head

64% acc · 70%

67% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 20%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

59% acc · 100%

Distance

69% acc · 90%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Junior Albini rounds

Round 1Junior Albini edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:15

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 17

Sig Strikes

10 / 15

58%

Sig Str %

66%

10 / 17

Total Strikes

10 / 15

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Junior Albini	10 / 15	10 / 15	1 / 1	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	10 / 17	10 / 17	0 / 3	1

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Junior Albini

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5