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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Oleinik won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1436

Aleksei OleinikvsJared VanderaaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, April 9, 2022Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:39

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsJared Vanderaa: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jared Vanderaa wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Vanderaa at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksei Oleinik enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Aleksei Oleinik has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Jared Vanderaa

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1495

Elo

1436

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei OleinikL4 streak

oldest →

vs Fabricio Werdum · May 20

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Jared VanderaaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Tafa · May 21

KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Oct 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Feb 22

KOvs Chase Sherman · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricJared Vanderaa

3.29

Strikes / min

4.96

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

44%

Strike defense

45%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

0.18

37%

Takedown defense

20%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikJared Vanderaa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.1|Blue -59.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +238.0|Blue -238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetJared Vanderaa

By target zone

19% acc · 38%

Head

35% acc · 87%

67% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 13%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

23% acc · 47%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

78% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Jared Vanderaa rounds

Round 1Jared Vanderaa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:44

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 22

Sig Strikes

15 / 40

36%

Sig Str %

37%

8 / 22

Total Strikes

23 / 49

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jared Vanderaa	15 / 40	23 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 0	1

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Jared Vanderaa

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7