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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Oleinik won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1493

Aleksei OleinikvsFabricio WerdumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsFabricio Werdum: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at -330 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fabricio Werdum has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Fabricio Werdum

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1495

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricFabricio Werdum

3.29

Strikes / min

3.59

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

44%

Strike defense

55%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

1.75

37%

Takedown defense

31%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikFabricio Werdum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -672.0|Blue +672.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetFabricio Werdum

By target zone

47% acc · 84%

Head

52% acc · 51%

100% acc · 11%

Body

76% acc · 30%

83% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

48% acc · 77%

Distance

57% acc · 64%

67% acc · 23%

Clinch

80% acc · 30%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Fabricio Werdum rounds

Round 1Aleksei Oleinik edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control1:31

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:56

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:26

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 183

Sig Strikes

53 / 83

50.3%

Sig Str %

60%

149 / 241

Total Strikes

70 / 101

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:53

Ctrl Time

3:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fabricio Werdum	25 / 37	28 / 40	0 / 2	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	54 / 94	71 / 112	0 / 0	0
2	Fabricio Werdum	24 / 38	29 / 43	1 / 2	0
2	Aleksei Oleinik	26 / 63	40 / 77	0 / 0	0
3	Fabricio Werdum	4 / 8	13 / 18	2 / 3	1
3	Aleksei Oleinik	14 / 26	38 / 52	0 / 0	0

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14