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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Omielanczuk won · M-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1361

Aleksei OleinikvsDaniel OmielanczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Omielanczuk won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsDaniel Omielanczuk: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Daniel Omielanczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Omielanczuk enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Omielanczuk is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Daniel Omielanczuk has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Omielanczuk (53.5%).
Aleksei Oleinik has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Daniel Omielanczuk

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1495

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Daniel OmielanczukL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris de la Rocha · Jul 15

vs Jarjis Danho · Feb 16

SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 16

DECvs Tim Johnson · Mar 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricDaniel Omielanczuk

3.29

Strikes / min

3.09

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

44%

Strike defense

47%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

0.56

37%

Takedown defense

68%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikDaniel Omielanczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Daniel Omielanczuk(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.3|Blue -134.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +462.0|Blue -462.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetDaniel Omielanczuk

By target zone

24% acc · 75%

Head

69% acc · 85%

100% acc · 13%

Body

80% acc · 15%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

11% acc · 25%

Distance

59% acc · 38%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

40% acc · 8%

63% acc · 63%

Ground

93% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Daniel Omielanczuk rounds

Round 1Aleksei Oleinik edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control4:51

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Omielanczuk edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:47

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:33Control

Round 3Daniel Omielanczuk edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control2:47

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 28

Sig Strikes

26 / 37

24%

Sig Str %

65.3%

60 / 84

Total Strikes

100 / 111

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

61%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:25

Ctrl Time

3:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Omielanczuk	3 / 6	16 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	6 / 12	21 / 31	2 / 2	0
2	Daniel Omielanczuk	18 / 24	47 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Aleksei Oleinik	2 / 9	11 / 18	1 / 3	2
3	Daniel Omielanczuk	5 / 7	37 / 39	1 / 1	0
3	Aleksei Oleinik	0 / 7	28 / 35	1 / 2	0

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Daniel Omielanczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9