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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1495

Aleksei OleinikvsCurtis BlaydesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Saturday, November 4, 2017New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:39

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsCurtis Blaydes: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Curtis Blaydes

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1495

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricCurtis Blaydes

3.29

Strikes / min

4.18

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

44%

Strike defense

53%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

5.12

37%

Takedown defense

35%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikCurtis Blaydes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetCurtis Blaydes

By target zone

42% acc · 65%

Head

35% acc · 85%

71% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 5%

88% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

47% acc · 79%

Distance

28% acc · 62%

64% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 28%

Ground

80% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Curtis Blaydes rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:16

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 68

Sig Strikes

39 / 101

48%

Sig Str %

36.5%

41 / 75

Total Strikes

50 / 112

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 4

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Curtis Blaydes	30 / 74	40 / 84	3 / 3
1	Aleksei Oleinik	26 / 50	32 / 56	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	9 / 27	10 / 28	1 / 1
2	Aleksei Oleinik	8 / 18	9 / 19	0 / 0

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19