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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Daukaus won · KO/TKO

Elo1495

Elo1471

Aleksei OleinikvsChris DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Daukaus won

KO/TKO

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsChris Daukaus: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Chris Daukaus wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Chris Daukaus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Daukaus at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Daukaus enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chris Daukaus is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Chris Daukaus has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chris Daukaus has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aleksei Oleinik has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Chris Daukaus

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-177

(64%)

1495

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

vs Fabricio Werdum · May 20

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Chris DaukausL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Sep 21

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Dec 21

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 22

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 22

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricChris Daukaus

3.29

Strikes / min

6.05

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

4.64

44%

Strike defense

55%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

0.00

37%

Takedown defense

100%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei OleinikChris Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Chris Daukaus(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.4|Blue -24.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetChris Daukaus

By target zone

38% acc · 60%

Head

59% acc · 94%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 82%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Chris Daukaus rounds

Round 1Chris Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:24

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 10

Sig Strikes

34 / 56

50%

Sig Str %

60%

6 / 11

Total Strikes

34 / 56

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Daukaus	34 / 56	34 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	5 / 10	6 / 11	0 / 1	0

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Chris Daukaus

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8