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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Oleinik won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1363

Aleksei OleinikvsAnthony HamiltonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:18

Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsAnthony Hamilton: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hamilton wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hamilton at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Hamilton enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Anthony Hamilton is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Anthony Hamilton has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aleksei Oleinik has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Oleinik

Red Corner

Anthony Hamilton

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1495

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'5"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Anthony HamiltonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Damian Grabowski · Jul 16

SUBvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 16

KOvs Marcel Fortuna · Feb 17

KOvs Daniel Spitz · Sep 17

vs Adam Wieczorek · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei OleinikMetricAnthony Hamilton

3.29

Strikes / min

3.91

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

44%

Strike defense

45%

1.82

TDs / 15 min

2.62

37%

Takedown defense

78%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+0.89

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Anthony Hamilton(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.6|Blue -132.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei OleinikTargetAnthony Hamilton

By target zone

33% acc · 60%

Head

38% acc · 83%

100% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

39% acc · 70%

Distance

42% acc · 83%

75% acc · 30%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

even

Anthony Hamilton rounds

Round 1Aleksei Oleinik edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:42

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 22

Sig Strikes

6 / 14

45%

Sig Str %

42%

13 / 26

Total Strikes

6 / 14

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Hamilton	6 / 14	6 / 14	0 / 1	0
1	Aleksei Oleinik	10 / 22	13 / 26	1 / 4	1

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17

Anthony Hamilton

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights10