Welterweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Kunchenko won · U-DEC R3

Elo1382

Elo1379

Aleksei KunchenkovsThiago AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Saturday, September 15, 2018Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Aleksei Kunchenko won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAleksei Kunchenko: Elusive strikervsThiago Alves: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Thiago Alves wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Aleksei Kunchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Alves at +350 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksei Kunchenko has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksei Kunchenko

Red Corner

Thiago Alves

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+350

(22%)

1382

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksei KunchenkoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Yushin Okami · Dec 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Aug 19

DECvs Elizeu Dos Santos · Mar 20

latest

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Patrick Cote · Apr 17

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksei KunchenkoMetricThiago Alves

3.67

Strikes / min

3.73

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

63%

Strike defense

62%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.71

80%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksei KunchenkoThiago Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksei Kunchenko(4 fights)Thiago Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +47.8|Blue -47.8

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksei KunchenkoTargetThiago Alves

By target zone

24% acc · 73%

Head

16% acc · 34%

63% acc · 11%

Body

50% acc · 20%

58% acc · 16%

Leg

70% acc · 46%

By position

28% acc · 91%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

33% acc · 9%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksei Kunchenko rounds

even

Thiago Alves rounds

Round 1Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Aleksei Kunchenko edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 153

Sig Strikes

56 / 175

25%

Sig Str %

30.3%

56 / 166

Total Strikes

56 / 175

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Alves	9 / 40	9 / 40	0 / 0
1	Aleksei Kunchenko	5 / 27	5 / 27	0 / 0
2	Thiago Alves	26 / 70	26 / 70	0 / 0
2	Aleksei Kunchenko	10 / 46	10 / 46	0 / 0
3	Thiago Alves	21 / 65	21 / 65	0 / 0
3	Aleksei Kunchenko	29 / 80	41 / 93	1 / 2

Aleksei Kunchenko

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15