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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
2 days away
Elo1471
Aleksandar Rakic editorial illustration
Elo1495
Marcin Tybura

Aleksandar RakicvsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, August 1, 2026Belgrade, Serbia

Fight begins in
Style matchupAleksandar Rakic: Well-roundedvsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

The model's pick for this fight is locked

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Aleksandar Rakic has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksandar Rakic
Red Corner
VS
Marcin Tybura
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+273
(27%)
1471
Elo
1495
34
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksandar RakicL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Thiago Santos · Mar 21
L
KOvs Jan Blachowicz · May 22
L
KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 24
L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 24
L
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25
latest
Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24
W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24
W
vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25
L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25
L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksandar RakicMetricMarcin Tybura
4.13
Strikes / min
3.56
2.86
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
51%
Strike defense
55%
0.64
TDs / 15 min
1.30
85%
Takedown defense
70%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.27evenly matched on net striking+0.30
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -24.0|Blue +24.0
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO84%

Historical win share: Marcin Tybura earned 36% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission16%

Historical win share: Aleksandar Rakic earned 17% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights11

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights24