Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksa Camur won · U-DEC R3

Elo1469

Elo1391

Aleksa CamurvsJustin LedetUFC Prediction Result

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Saturday, January 18, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aleksa Camur won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAleksa Camur: Pressure fightervsJustin Ledet: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Justin Ledet wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Aleksa Camur wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Ledet at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksa Camur enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Ledet enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Ledet has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksa Camur

Red Corner

Justin Ledet

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1469

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksa CamurL3 streak

oldest →

vs William Knight · Sep 20

vs Nicolae Negumereanu · Jun 21

vs Tanner Boser · Aug 23

latest

Justin LedetL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Godbeer · Nov 16

DECvs Zu Anyanwu · Sep 17

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Jul 18

KOvs Johnny Walker · Feb 19

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksa CamurMetricJustin Ledet

4.73

Strikes / min

3.35

4.26

Strikes absorbed / min

4.82

54%

Strike defense

49%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

0.23

50%

Takedown defense

42%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.47Δ 1.94 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aleksa CamurJustin Ledet

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksa Camur(4 fights)Justin Ledet(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.4|Blue -78.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +46.7|Blue -46.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksa CamurTargetJustin Ledet

By target zone

38% acc · 50%

Head

29% acc · 77%

71% acc · 30%

Body

71% acc · 23%

59% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 78%

Distance

31% acc · 86%

74% acc · 21%

Clinch

75% acc · 14%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksa Camur rounds

even

Justin Ledet rounds

Round 1Aleksa Camur edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Aleksa Camur edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Aleksa Camur edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 165

Sig Strikes

44 / 131

48%

Sig Str %

31.3%

88 / 174

Total Strikes

60 / 148

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Ledet	7 / 34	7 / 34	0 / 0
1	Aleksa Camur	22 / 58	23 / 59	0 / 0
2	Justin Ledet	24 / 54	37 / 67	0 / 0
2	Aleksa Camur	34 / 56	35 / 57	0 / 1
3	Justin Ledet	13 / 43	16 / 47	0 / 0
3	Aleksa Camur	24 / 51	30 / 58	1 / 1

Aleksa Camur

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Justin Ledet

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7