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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Alejandro Perez won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1495
Elo1356

Alejandro PerezvsScott JorgensenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Alejandro Perez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:26

Style matchupAlejandro Perez: Well-roundedvsScott Jorgensen: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alejandro Perez wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Alejandro Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alejandro Perez at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alejandro Perez
Red Corner
VS
Scott Jorgensen
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1495
Elo
1356
36
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'5"
170.18 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alejandro Perez
oldest →
W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 18
L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 19
L
KOvs Song Yadong · Jul 19
W
SUBvs Johnny Eduardo · Oct 21
L
vs Jonathan Martinez · Feb 22
latest
Scott JorgensenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 13
L
SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14
W
vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14
L
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14
L
vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alejandro PerezMetricScott Jorgensen
3.45
Strikes / min
3.37
3.18
Strikes absorbed / min
3.41
61%
Strike defense
65%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
2.61
70%
Takedown defense
59%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1454Strikes19.0 vs 34.7Takedowns0.5 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.18Form-0.3 vs -0.7
Alejandro PerezScott Jorgensen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Alejandro Perez(10 fights)Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.0|Blue -139.0
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +32.0|Blue -32.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alejandro PerezTargetScott Jorgensen

By target zone

19
32% acc · 49%
Head
7
23% acc · 64%
6
67% acc · 15%
Body
1
33% acc · 9%
14
61% acc · 36%
Leg
3
75% acc · 27%

By position

31
40% acc · 79%
Distance
10
29% acc · 91%
2
50% acc · 5%
Clinch
0
0% acc
6
67% acc · 15%
Ground
1
100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alejandro Perez rounds
0
even
1
Scott Jorgensen rounds
Round 1Scott Jorgensen edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:48Control
Round 2Alejandro Perez edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:15
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
39 / 91
Sig Strikes
11 / 37
39.5%
Sig Str %
27.5%
42 / 94
Total Strikes
11 / 37
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 6
—
TD %
33%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:15
Ctrl Time
0:48

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Scott Jorgensen10 / 2010 / 202 / 30
1Alejandro Perez9 / 2811 / 300 / 00
2Scott Jorgensen1 / 171 / 170 / 30
2Alejandro Perez30 / 6331 / 640 / 00

Alejandro Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights12

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights12