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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Patrick Williams won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Elo1365
Patrick Williams

Alejandro PerezvsPatrick WilliamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Patrick Williams won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:23

Style matchupAlejandro Perez: Well-roundedvsPatrick Williams: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alejandro Perez wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Patrick Williams wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alejandro Perez at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Patrick Williams enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Patrick Williams has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Patrick Williams has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alejandro Perez
Red Corner
VS
Patrick Williams
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1495
Elo
1365
36
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alejandro Perez
oldest →
W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 18
L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 19
L
KOvs Song Yadong · Jul 19
W
SUBvs Johnny Eduardo · Oct 21
L
vs Jonathan Martinez · Feb 22
latest
Patrick WilliamsL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Chris Beal · Apr 14
L
KOvs Tom Duquesnoy · Apr 17
L
vs Luke Sanders · Apr 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alejandro PerezMetricPatrick Williams
3.45
Strikes / min
4.12
3.18
Strikes absorbed / min
4.12
61%
Strike defense
52%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
2.71
70%
Takedown defense
100%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.27evenly matched on net striking0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1484Strikes38.0 vs 14.0Takedowns1.0 vs 2.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -1.0
Alejandro PerezPatrick Williams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alejandro Perez(10 fights)Patrick Williams(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +129.9|Blue -129.9
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alejandro PerezTargetPatrick Williams

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
2
50% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
67% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Alejandro Perez rounds
0
even
1
Patrick Williams rounds
Round 1Patrick Williams edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
2 / 4
0%
Sig Str %
50%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
2 / 4
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Patrick Williams2 / 42 / 40 / 01
1Alejandro Perez0 / 10 / 10 / 10

Alejandro Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights12

Patrick Williams

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4