Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alejandro Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1491

Alejandro PerezvsIuri AlcantaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 9, 2017Fresno, California, USA

Official fight result

Alejandro Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlejandro Perez: Well-roundedvsIuri Alcantara: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Alejandro Perez wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Alejandro Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alejandro Perez at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alejandro Perez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).
Iuri Alcantara has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alejandro Perez

Red Corner

Iuri Alcantara

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1495

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alejandro Perez

oldest →

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 18

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 19

KOvs Song Yadong · Jul 19

SUBvs Johnny Eduardo · Oct 21

vs Jonathan Martinez · Feb 22

latest

Iuri Alcantara

oldest →

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Oct 16

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17

KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alejandro PerezMetricIuri Alcantara

3.45

Strikes / min

2.72

3.18

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

61%

Strike defense

49%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.44

70%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alejandro PerezIuri Alcantara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alejandro Perez(10 fights)Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alejandro PerezTargetIuri Alcantara

By target zone

22% acc · 46%

Head

14% acc · 24%

100% acc · 11%

Body

71% acc · 39%

71% acc · 43%

Leg

93% acc · 37%

By position

32% acc · 83%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

86% acc · 17%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alejandro Perez rounds

even

Iuri Alcantara rounds

Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Iuri Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:07

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Alejandro Perez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:47

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 97

Sig Strikes

38 / 99

35.3%

Sig Str %

38%

38 / 100

Total Strikes

39 / 100

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:54

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Iuri Alcantara	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 0
1	Alejandro Perez	7 / 29	8 / 30	0 / 0
2	Iuri Alcantara	18 / 36	19 / 37	0 / 1
2	Alejandro Perez	13 / 30	13 / 30	0 / 2
3	Iuri Alcantara	8 / 33	8 / 33	0 / 2
3	Alejandro Perez	15 / 38	17 / 40	0 / 1

Alejandro Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17