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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Alden Coria won · Decision R3
Elo1554
Alden Coria editorial illustration
Elo1406

Alden CoriavsStewart NicollUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Saturday, July 18, 2026Oklahoma City, USA

Official fight result

Alden Coria won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Alden Coria

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Alden Coria at -1104 American odds · hypothetical only

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stewart Nicoll enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Alden Coria has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alden Coria has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alden Coria
Red Corner
VS
Stewart Nicoll
Blue Corner
-1097
(92%)
Vegas Odds
+705
(12%)
1554
Elo
1406
28
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'5"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alden CoriaW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Sep 25
W
vs Luis Gurule · Feb 26
latest
Stewart NicollL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Jesus Aguilar · Aug 24
L
vs Lucas Rocha · Oct 25
L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alden CoriaMetricStewart Nicoll
4.69
Strikes / min
3.63
2.40
Strikes absorbed / min
5.84
69%
Strike defense
49%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
1.63
71%
Takedown defense
28%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.29Δ 4.50 — meaningful gap-2.21
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

13901435148015251570← oldermost recent →
Alden Coria(3 fights)Stewart Nicoll(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +147.5|Blue -147.5
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alden CoriaTargetStewart Nicoll

By target zone

35
30% acc · 80%
Head
20
26% acc · 71%
8
100% acc · 18%
Body
4
57% acc · 14%
1
100% acc · 2%
Leg
4
67% acc · 14%

By position

42
34% acc · 95%
Distance
28
31% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alden Coria rounds
1
even
1
Stewart Nicoll rounds
Round 1Stewart Nicoll edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:09
9Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:03Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:05
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:27Control
Round 3Alden Coria edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns2
Control1:03
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:47Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
44 / 127
Sig Strikes
28 / 90
35%
Sig Str %
31.7%
60 / 144
Total Strikes
32 / 94
3 / 5
TDs
5 / 9
55.3%
TD %
52.7%
4
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:17
Ctrl Time
4:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Stewart Nicoll9 / 3910 / 403 / 40
1Alden Coria14 / 3915 / 400 / 10
2Stewart Nicoll13 / 2813 / 281 / 30
2Alden Coria14 / 3423 / 441 / 11
3Stewart Nicoll6 / 239 / 261 / 20
3Alden Coria16 / 5422 / 602 / 33

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Alden Coria
Odds
-1104

Market-implied probability

Alden Coria 88%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Alden Coria (model pick · research)$109
Stewart Nicoll$809

88% market-implied · model 68% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -1104 · never rewritten

Alden Coria

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3

Stewart Nicoll

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4