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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alden Coria won · U-DEC R3

Elo1554

Elo1448

Alden CoriavsLuis GuruleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alden Coria won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlden Coria: Elusive strikervsLuis Gurule: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Alden Coria wins(87.4%)

Actual result: Alden Coria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alden Coria at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alden Coria has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alden Coria

Red Corner

Luis Gurule

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1554

Elo

1448

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alden CoriaW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Sep 25

DECvs Stewart Nicoll · Jul 26

latest

Luis Gurule

oldest →

KOvs Ode Osbourne · Apr 25

vs Jesus Aguilar · Sep 25

DECvs Daniel Barez · May 26

SUBvs Rei Tsuruya · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alden CoriaMetricLuis Gurule

4.69

Strikes / min

4.47

2.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.74

69%

Strike defense

59%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

0.58

71%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.29Δ 2.56 — meaningful gap-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alden CoriaLuis Gurule

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alden Coria(3 fights)Luis Gurule(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.5|Blue -105.5

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alden CoriaTargetLuis Gurule

By target zone

38% acc · 66%

Head

26% acc · 64%

58% acc · 19%

Body

50% acc · 16%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

83% acc · 20%

By position

42% acc · 89%

Distance

32% acc · 90%

86% acc · 8%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alden Coria rounds

even

Luis Gurule rounds

Round 1Alden Coria edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:09

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Alden Coria edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:02

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Alden Coria edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:31

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 175

Sig Strikes

50 / 150

45%

Sig Str %

32.7%

96 / 193

Total Strikes

59 / 169

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 3

16.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luis Gurule	11 / 33	15 / 37	0 / 0
1	Alden Coria	24 / 51	26 / 53	0 / 1
2	Luis Gurule	12 / 38	13 / 40	1 / 2
2	Alden Coria	22 / 51	29 / 58	0 / 1
3	Luis Gurule	27 / 79	31 / 92	0 / 1
3	Alden Coria	33 / 73	41 / 82	1 / 2

Alden Coria

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Luis Gurule

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5