Middleweight

3 Rounds

Marvin Vettori won · SUB R1

Elo1358

Elo1467

Alberto UdavsMarvin VettoriUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:30

Style matchupAlberto Uda: WrestlervsMarvin Vettori: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alberto Uda wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alberto Uda at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marvin Vettori has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alberto Uda

Red Corner

Marvin Vettori

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1358

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alberto Uda

oldest →

KOvs Jake Collier · May 16

latest

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alberto UdaMetricMarvin Vettori

1.79

Strikes / min

4.74

3.49

Strikes absorbed / min

4.55

45%

Strike defense

56%

2.83

TDs / 15 min

1.41

66%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.70Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alberto UdaMarvin Vettori

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alberto Uda(2 fights)Marvin Vettori(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -109.7|Blue +109.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alberto UdaTargetMarvin Vettori

By target zone

38% acc · 75%

Head

71% acc · 100%

100% acc · 25%

Body

Leg

By position

20% acc · 25%

Distance

50% acc · 20%

Clinch

75% acc · 75%

Ground

80% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alberto Uda rounds

even

Marvin Vettori rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:33

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

10 / 14

44%

Sig Str %

71%

21 / 27

Total Strikes

50 / 68

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:33

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marvin Vettori	10 / 14	50 / 68	1 / 1	1
1	Alberto Uda	4 / 9	21 / 27	1 / 2	0

Alberto Uda

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17