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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Albert Tumenov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1358
Albert Tumenov
Elo1356
Matt Dwyer

Albert TumenovvsMatt DwyerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Albert Tumenov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:03

Model Prediction: Albert Tumenov wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Albert Tumenov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Albert Tumenov at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Albert Tumenov has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Albert Tumenov
Red Corner
VS
Matt Dwyer
Blue Corner
-440
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+390
(20%)
1358
Elo
1356
34
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Albert TumenovL2 streak
oldest →
W
DECvs Nico Musoke · Jan 15
W
KOvs Alan Jouban · Oct 15
W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 16
L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · May 16
L
SUBvs Leon Edwards · Oct 16
latest
Matt DwyerL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs William Patolino · Feb 15
L
vs Alan Jouban · Jul 15
L
vs Randy Brown · Jan 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Albert TumenovMetricMatt Dwyer
3.76
Strikes / min
2.57
3.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.24
58%
Strike defense
54%
0.20
TDs / 15 min
0.44
75%
Takedown defense
60%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.42Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes19.0 vs —Takedowns0.5 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.1 vs 0.0
Albert TumenovMatt Dwyer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Albert Tumenov(8 fights)Matt Dwyer(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Albert TumenovTargetMatt Dwyer

By target zone

4
33% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

2
29% acc · 50%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
2
40% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Albert Tumenov rounds
0
even
0
Matt Dwyer rounds
Round 1Albert Tumenov edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns2
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
4 / 12
Sig Strikes
0 / 6
33%
Sig Str %
0%
4 / 12
Total Strikes
0 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Matt Dwyer0 / 60 / 60 / 00
1Albert Tumenov4 / 124 / 120 / 00

Albert Tumenov

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Matt Dwyer

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4