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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R2

Elo1358

Elo1497

Albert TumenovvsGunnar NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Gunnar Nelson won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:15

Style matchupAlbert Tumenov: StrikervsGunnar Nelson: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Albert Tumenov wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Albert Tumenov at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Albert Tumenov has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Albert Tumenov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Albert Tumenov

Red Corner

Gunnar Nelson

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1358

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Albert Tumenov

oldest →

KOvs Matt Dwyer · Oct 14

DECvs Nico Musoke · Jan 15

KOvs Alan Jouban · Oct 15

vs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 16

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Oct 16

latest

Gunnar Nelson

oldest →

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19

vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Albert TumenovMetricGunnar Nelson

3.76

Strikes / min

1.77

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

58%

Strike defense

48%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

2.00

75%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.42Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Albert TumenovGunnar Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Albert Tumenov(8 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.4|Blue +138.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Albert TumenovTargetGunnar Nelson

By target zone

33% acc · 39%

Head

64% acc · 86%

100% acc · 52%

Body

80% acc · 14%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 91%

Distance

52% acc · 52%

67% acc · 9%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Albert Tumenov rounds

even

Gunnar Nelson rounds

Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Gunnar Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 41

Sig Strikes

29 / 44

56%

Sig Str %

66.5%

24 / 43

Total Strikes

41 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gunnar Nelson	20 / 31	27 / 38	1 / 1	0
1	Albert Tumenov	13 / 24	13 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Gunnar Nelson	9 / 13	14 / 18	1 / 1	1
2	Albert Tumenov	10 / 17	11 / 18	0 / 0	0

Albert Tumenov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Gunnar Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16