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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alan Patrick won · U-DEC R3

Elo1425

Elo1492

Alan PatrickvsStevie RayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Alan Patrick won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlan Patrick: WrestlervsStevie Ray: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Stevie Ray wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Alan Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stevie Ray at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stevie Ray has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alan Patrick has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alan Patrick

Red Corner

Stevie Ray

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1425

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan PatrickL3 streak

oldest →

vs Damien Brown · Mar 16

vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18

KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18

vs Bobby Green · Sep 20

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22

latest

Stevie Ray

oldest →

KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18

vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18

KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19

vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan PatrickMetricStevie Ray

1.82

Strikes / min

3.73

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

43%

Strike defense

54%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

0.75

43%

Takedown defense

55%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.13Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan PatrickStevie Ray

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Patrick(9 fights)Stevie Ray(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.1|Blue +67.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan PatrickTargetStevie Ray

By target zone

64% acc · 100%

Head

22% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

50% acc · 43%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 57%

Ground

100% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Patrick rounds

even

Stevie Ray rounds

Round 1Alan Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control4:29

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Alan Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:22

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Alan Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control4:21

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 12

Sig Strikes

2 / 9

58.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

60 / 75

Total Strikes

56 / 65

5 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

70%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:12

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stevie Ray	1 / 1	17 / 17	0 / 0	1
1	Alan Patrick	2 / 4	12 / 16	3 / 5	0
2	Stevie Ray	0 / 5	27 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Alan Patrick	3 / 4	18 / 24	1 / 2	0
3	Stevie Ray	1 / 3	12 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	Alan Patrick	2 / 4	30 / 35	1 / 1	1

Alan Patrick

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11