Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alan Patrick won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1425
Alan Patrick
Elo1354
Garett Whiteley

Alan PatrickvsGarett WhiteleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Alan Patrick won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:54

Model Prediction: Garett Whiteley wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Alan Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garett Whiteley at +215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Alan Patrick has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alan Patrick (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alan Patrick
Red Corner
VS
Garett Whiteley
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1425
Elo
1354
43
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan PatrickL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Stevie Ray · Sep 16
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18
L
KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18
L
vs Bobby Green · Sep 20
L
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22
latest
Garett WhiteleyL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Vinc Pichel · Jan 14
L
vs David Michaud · Dec 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan PatrickMetricGarett Whiteley
1.82
Strikes / min
3.72
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
4.04
43%
Strike defense
46%
3.01
TDs / 15 min
0.00
43%
Takedown defense
27%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.13evenly matched on net striking-0.32
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alan Patrick(9 fights)Garett Whiteley(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +70.8|Blue -70.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan PatrickTargetGarett Whiteley

By target zone

13
50% acc · 81%
Head
3
13% acc · 43%
0
0% acc
Body
3
75% acc · 43%
3
100% acc · 19%
Leg
1
100% acc · 14%

By position

8
32% acc · 50%
Distance
4
19% acc · 57%
3
60% acc · 19%
Clinch
3
43% acc · 43%
5
100% acc · 31%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alan Patrick rounds
0
even
0
Garett Whiteley rounds
Round 1Alan Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control0:53
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 35
Sig Strikes
7 / 28
45%
Sig Str %
25%
19 / 42
Total Strikes
15 / 36
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:53
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Garett Whiteley7 / 2815 / 360 / 10
1Alan Patrick16 / 3519 / 421 / 20

Alan Patrick

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Garett Whiteley

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3