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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alan Patrick won · U-DEC R3
Elo1425
Alan Patrick
Elo1492
Damir Hadzovic

Alan PatrickvsDamir HadzovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Saturday, February 3, 2018Belem, Para, Brazil

Official fight result

Alan Patrick won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alan Patrick wins(81.7%)

Actual result: Alan Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Patrick at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Damir Hadzovic is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alan Patrick has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Damir Hadzovic has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alan Patrick (53.5%).
  • Alan Patrick has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alan Patrick
Red Corner
VS
Damir Hadzovic
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1425
Elo
1492
43
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan PatrickL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Damien Brown · Mar 16
W
vs Stevie Ray · Sep 16
L
KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18
L
vs Bobby Green · Sep 20
L
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22
latest
Damir HadzovicL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 19
L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Mar 20
W
vs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 21
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Jul 22
L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Feb 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan PatrickMetricDamir Hadzovic
1.82
Strikes / min
3.34
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
43%
Strike defense
59%
3.01
TDs / 15 min
0.91
43%
Takedown defense
34%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.13evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1557 vs 1502Strikes21.0 vs 12.5Takedowns2.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form0.7 vs 0.5
Alan PatrickDamir Hadzovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alan Patrick(9 fights)Damir Hadzovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -67.5|Blue +67.5
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +246.0|Blue -246.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan PatrickTargetDamir Hadzovic

By target zone

20
57% acc · 71%
Head
5
63% acc · 25%
5
71% acc · 18%
Body
15
88% acc · 75%
3
100% acc · 11%
Leg
0

By position

8
44% acc · 29%
Distance
6
67% acc · 30%
3
75% acc · 11%
Clinch
11
92% acc · 55%
17
74% acc · 61%
Ground
3
75% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Alan Patrick rounds
0
even
0
Damir Hadzovic rounds
Round 1Alan Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns6
Control3:33
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:48Control
Round 2Alan Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control4:41
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Alan Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control4:15
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
28 / 45
Sig Strikes
20 / 25
57.3%
Sig Str %
70.7%
91 / 129
Total Strikes
67 / 81
9 / 15
TDs
0 / 0
55.3%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
12:29
Ctrl Time
0:48

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Damir Hadzovic12 / 1424 / 270 / 01
1Alan Patrick17 / 2245 / 656 / 90
2Damir Hadzovic1 / 227 / 350 / 00
2Alan Patrick5 / 1226 / 391 / 20
3Damir Hadzovic7 / 916 / 190 / 00
3Alan Patrick6 / 1120 / 252 / 40

Alan Patrick

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Damir Hadzovic

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10