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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alan Patrick won · U-DEC R3

Elo1425

Elo1364

Alan PatrickvsDamien BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · Saturday, March 19, 2016Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Alan Patrick won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alan Patrick wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Alan Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Patrick at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Damien Brown enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Damien Brown is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alan Patrick has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Alan Patrick (53.5%).
Alan Patrick has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alan Patrick

Red Corner

Damien Brown

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1425

Elo

1364

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan PatrickL3 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Sep 16

vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18

KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18

vs Bobby Green · Sep 20

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22

latest

Damien BrownL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cesar Arzamendia · Jul 16

vs Jon Tuck · Nov 16

KOvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 17

vs Frank Camacho · Nov 17

vs Dong Hyun Ma · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan PatrickMetricDamien Brown

1.82

Strikes / min

3.66

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

4.86

43%

Strike defense

50%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

0.68

43%

Takedown defense

53%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.13evenly matched on net striking-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan PatrickDamien Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Patrick(9 fights)Damien Brown(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.9|Blue -60.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan PatrickTargetDamien Brown

By target zone

64% acc · 92%

Head

62% acc · 87%

50% acc · 4%

Body

67% acc · 13%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

0% acc

By position

58% acc · 28%

Distance

55% acc · 40%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

67% acc · 72%

Ground

67% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Patrick rounds

even

Damien Brown rounds

Round 1Alan Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:26

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Alan Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:50

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alan Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:08

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 39

Sig Strikes

15 / 25

67.7%

Sig Str %

57.7%

117 / 147

Total Strikes

51 / 64

5 / 7

TDs

1 / 3

72%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

12:24

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damien Brown	8 / 12	19 / 24	1 / 2	0
1	Alan Patrick	8 / 13	37 / 45	2 / 2	1
2	Damien Brown	3 / 6	28 / 33	0 / 0	1
2	Alan Patrick	10 / 18	61 / 81	1 / 2	0
3	Damien Brown	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 1	0
3	Alan Patrick	7 / 8	19 / 21	2 / 3	0

Alan Patrick

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Damien Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6