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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · SUB R3

Elo1355

Elo1511

Alan OmervsArnold AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · Saturday, June 20, 2015Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:41

Style matchupAlan Omer: Well-roundedvsArnold Allen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Alan Omer wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Omer at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alan Omer

Red Corner

Arnold Allen

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1355

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan Omer

oldest →

vs Jim Alers · Apr 14

latest

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan OmerMetricArnold Allen

3.49

Strikes / min

3.47

2.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

64%

Strike defense

60%

1.69

TDs / 15 min

0.86

66%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28evenly matched on net striking+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan OmerArnold Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Omer(2 fights)Arnold Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -156.2|Blue +156.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan OmerTargetArnold Allen

By target zone

50% acc · 77%

Head

30% acc · 87%

63% acc · 14%

Body

38% acc · 13%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 57%

Distance

28% acc · 78%

60% acc · 26%

Clinch

17% acc · 4%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Omer rounds

even

Arnold Allen rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Alan Omer edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:32

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Alan Omer edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:54

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 66

Sig Strikes

23 / 75

61.7%

Sig Str %

22.3%

85 / 125

Total Strikes

33 / 86

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 4

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:26

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Arnold Allen	16 / 54	20 / 58	1 / 1	0
1	Alan Omer	21 / 46	40 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Arnold Allen	7 / 18	13 / 25	0 / 3	0
2	Alan Omer	9 / 13	35 / 47	1 / 2	0
3	Arnold Allen	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	1
3	Alan Omer	5 / 7	10 / 13	1 / 2	0

Alan Omer

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14