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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Niko Price won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1445

Alan JoubanvsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · Saturday, August 5, 2017Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Niko Price won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:44

Style matchupAlan Jouban: Pressure fightervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Niko Price wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alan Jouban is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Niko Price has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Alan Jouban has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alan Jouban

Red Corner

Niko Price

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1493

Elo

1445

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan Jouban

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Dec 16

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18

vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19

vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20

latest

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan JoubanMetricNiko Price

5.67

Strikes / min

5.11

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

60%

Strike defense

48%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

1.06

58%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.90Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan JoubanNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Jouban(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -78.0|Blue +78.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan JoubanTargetNiko Price

By target zone

43% acc · 60%

Head

40% acc · 60%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

56% acc · 100%

Distance

46% acc · 60%

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Jouban rounds

even

Niko Price rounds

Round 1Niko Price edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 9

Sig Strikes

10 / 19

55%

Sig Str %

52%

5 / 9

Total Strikes

10 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Niko Price	10 / 19	10 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Alan Jouban	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 0	0

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19