← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alan Jouban won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1356

Alan JoubanvsMatt DwyerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Alan Jouban won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Alan Jouban wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alan Jouban

Red Corner

Matt Dwyer

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1493

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan Jouban

oldest →

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17

KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18

vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19

vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20

latest

Matt Dwyer

oldest →

KOvs Albert Tumenov · Oct 14

KOvs William Patolino · Feb 15

vs Randy Brown · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan JoubanMetricMatt Dwyer

5.67

Strikes / min

2.57

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

60%

Strike defense

54%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.44

58%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.90Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan JoubanMatt Dwyer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Jouban(10 fights)Matt Dwyer(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.8|Blue -136.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan JoubanTargetMatt Dwyer

By target zone

42% acc · 61%

Head

23% acc · 79%

61% acc · 22%

Body

27% acc · 14%

69% acc · 18%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

49% acc · 71%

Distance

22% acc · 76%

47% acc · 14%

Clinch

55% acc · 21%

53% acc · 16%

Ground

20% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Jouban rounds

even

Matt Dwyer rounds

Round 1Matt Dwyer edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:11

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:31

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:10

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 104

Sig Strikes

29 / 117

47.7%

Sig Str %

23.3%

63 / 116

Total Strikes

34 / 122

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:52

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Dwyer	9 / 32	11 / 34	0 / 0
1	Alan Jouban	12 / 29	17 / 34	0 / 0
2	Matt Dwyer	16 / 55	16 / 55	0 / 1
2	Alan Jouban	23 / 39	23 / 39	0 / 0
3	Matt Dwyer	4 / 30	7 / 33	0 / 0
3	Alan Jouban	16 / 36	23 / 43	1 / 1

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Matt Dwyer

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4