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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alan Jouban won · U-DEC

Elo1493

Elo1495

Alan JoubanvsJared GoodenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Saturday, November 21, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alan Jouban won

U-DEC

Style matchupAlan Jouban: Pressure fightervsJared Gooden: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Alan Jouban wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alan Jouban has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).
Jared Gooden has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alan Jouban

Red Corner

Jared Gooden

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1493

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan Jouban

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Dec 16

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17

KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18

vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19

latest

Jared Gooden

oldest →

KOvs Niklas Stolze · Jul 21

vs Randy Brown · Oct 21

vs Carlston Harris · Mar 23

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Dec 23

vs Chidi Njokuani · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan JoubanMetricJared Gooden

5.67

Strikes / min

4.40

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

6.74

60%

Strike defense

45%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.91

58%

Takedown defense

65%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.90Δ 4.24 — meaningful gap-2.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan JoubanJared Gooden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Jouban(10 fights)Jared Gooden(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -47.6|Blue +47.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan JoubanTargetJared Gooden

By target zone

116

44% acc · 69%

Head

43% acc · 79%

71% acc · 23%

Body

78% acc · 21%

93% acc · 8%

Leg

0% acc

By position

150

49% acc · 89%

Distance

46% acc · 90%

69% acc · 11%

Clinch

71% acc · 10%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Jouban rounds

even

Jared Gooden rounds

Round 1Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:03

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes71

Takedowns0

Control0:03

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes56

Takedowns0

Control0:04

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

168 / 331

Sig Strikes

100 / 210

49.7%

Sig Str %

47%

169 / 332

Total Strikes

101 / 211

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

1:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jared Gooden	33 / 71	33 / 71	0 / 0	0
1	Alan Jouban	41 / 96	41 / 96	0 / 0	0
2	Jared Gooden	35 / 72	35 / 72	0 / 0	0
2	Alan Jouban	71 / 126	72 / 127	0 / 0	0
3	Jared Gooden	32 / 67	33 / 68	1 / 1	0
3	Alan Jouban	56 / 109	56 / 109	0 / 1	2

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Jared Gooden

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7