Welterweight

3 Rounds

Dwight Grant won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1430

Alan JoubanvsDwight GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Dwight Grant won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlan Jouban: Pressure fightervsDwight Grant: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Dwight Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dwight Grant enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dwight Grant (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Alan Jouban

Red Corner

Dwight Grant

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1493

Elo

1430

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan JoubanW2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Dec 16

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17

KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18

vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20

latest

Dwight GrantL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 20

vs Stefan Sekulic · Apr 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Oct 21

KOvs Sergey Khandozhko · Apr 22

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan JoubanMetricDwight Grant

5.67

Strikes / min

3.29

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

60%

Strike defense

60%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.61

58%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.90Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan JoubanDwight Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Jouban(10 fights)Dwight Grant(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +63.3|Blue -63.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +364.0|Blue -364.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan JoubanTargetDwight Grant

By target zone

12% acc · 38%

Head

15% acc · 34%

50% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 11%

71% acc · 50%

Leg

81% acc · 55%

By position

21% acc · 79%

Distance

31% acc · 97%

25% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

57% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Jouban rounds

even

Dwight Grant rounds

Round 1Dwight Grant edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:08

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dwight Grant edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:08

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:13

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 100

Sig Strikes

38 / 122

24%

Sig Str %

31%

25 / 101

Total Strikes

39 / 123

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dwight Grant	10 / 35	11 / 36	0 / 0
1	Alan Jouban	5 / 31	5 / 31	0 / 1
2	Dwight Grant	13 / 37	13 / 37	0 / 0
2	Alan Jouban	9 / 27	9 / 27	0 / 0
3	Dwight Grant	15 / 50	15 / 50	0 / 0
3	Alan Jouban	10 / 42	11 / 43	1 / 1

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Dwight Grant

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8