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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alan Jouban won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1479

Alan JoubanvsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alan Jouban won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlan Jouban: Pressure fightervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Alan Jouban wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alan Jouban

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1493

Elo

1479

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan Jouban

oldest →

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17

KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18

vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19

vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan JoubanMetricBelal Muhammad

5.67

Strikes / min

4.43

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

60%

Strike defense

55%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

2.14

58%

Takedown defense

90%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.90Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan JoubanBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Jouban(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.8|Blue -13.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan JoubanTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

38% acc · 53%

Head

37% acc · 92%

77% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 4%

87% acc · 23%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

48% acc · 76%

Distance

37% acc · 90%

83% acc · 6%

Clinch

56% acc · 6%

59% acc · 19%

Ground

60% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Jouban rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:35

Knockdowns2

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:07Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:02

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 169

Sig Strikes

77 / 199

50.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

105 / 191

Total Strikes

108 / 239

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 8

—

TD %

23.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:37

Ctrl Time

3:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Belal Muhammad	7 / 23	9 / 25	1 / 2
1	Alan Jouban	24 / 43	34 / 53	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	13 / 46	35 / 76	1 / 5
2	Alan Jouban	19 / 40	28 / 52	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	57 / 130	64 / 138	0 / 1
3	Alan Jouban	43 / 86	43 / 86	0 / 0

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21