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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Albert Tumenov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Elo1358
Albert Tumenov

Alan JoubanvsAlbert TumenovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Albert Tumenov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:55

Style matchupAlan Jouban: Pressure fightervsAlbert Tumenov: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Albert Tumenov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Albert Tumenov has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alan Jouban
Red Corner
VS
Albert Tumenov
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-260
(72%)
1493
Elo
1358
44
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan Jouban
oldest →
L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17
L
KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18
L
vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19
W
vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20
latest
Albert TumenovL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Matt Dwyer · Oct 14
W
DECvs Nico Musoke · Jan 15
W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 16
L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · May 16
L
SUBvs Leon Edwards · Oct 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan JoubanMetricAlbert Tumenov
5.67
Strikes / min
3.76
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
60%
Strike defense
58%
0.51
TDs / 15 min
0.20
58%
Takedown defense
75%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.90Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1538Strikes41.8 vs 32.3Takedowns0.3 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.6 vs 0.7
Alan JoubanAlbert Tumenov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Alan Jouban(10 fights)Albert Tumenov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.8|Blue -134.8
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -172.0|Blue +172.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan JoubanTargetAlbert Tumenov

By target zone

12
44% acc · 71%
Head
16
44% acc · 84%
4
80% acc · 24%
Body
3
75% acc · 16%
1
50% acc · 6%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

16
48% acc · 94%
Distance
18
45% acc · 95%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 5%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Alan Jouban rounds
0
even
1
Albert Tumenov rounds
Round 1Albert Tumenov edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
17 / 34
Sig Strikes
19 / 41
50%
Sig Str %
46%
17 / 34
Total Strikes
19 / 41
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Albert Tumenov19 / 4119 / 410 / 10
1Alan Jouban17 / 3417 / 340 / 00

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13

Albert Tumenov

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8