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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Alan Belcher won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Alan Belcher
Elo1351
Jason MacDonald

Alan BelchervsJason MacDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Alan Belcher won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:48

Style matchupAlan Belcher: Well-roundedvsJason MacDonald: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Alan Belcher wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Alan Belcher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Belcher at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alan Belcher is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Jason MacDonald has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Alan Belcher has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alan Belcher has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jason MacDonald has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alan Belcher
Red Corner
VS
Jason MacDonald
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1352
Elo
1351
42
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan BelcherL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Patrick Cote · May 10
W
KOvs Rousimar Palhares · May 12
L
vs Yushin Okami · Dec 12
L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 13
latest
Jason MacDonald
oldest →
L
KOvs John Salter · May 10
W
SUBvs Ryan Jensen · Apr 11
L
KOvs Tom Lawlor · May 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan BelcherMetricJason MacDonald
2.70
Strikes / min
1.55
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
59%
Strike defense
46%
0.44
TDs / 15 min
1.43
55%
Takedown defense
35%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40evenly matched on net striking-1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1501Strikes26.6 vs 10.6Takedowns0.4 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.45 vs 0.92Form1.0 vs 0.5
Alan BelcherJason MacDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Alan Belcher(5 fights)Jason MacDonald(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +357.0|Blue -357.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan BelcherTargetJason MacDonald

By target zone

24
63% acc · 96%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 4%
Body
2
100% acc · 100%
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 100%
24
71% acc · 96%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alan Belcher rounds
0
even
0
Jason MacDonald rounds
Round 1Alan Belcher edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control2:58
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
25 / 39
Sig Strikes
2 / 7
64%
Sig Str %
28%
52 / 68
Total Strikes
5 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 3
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:58
Ctrl Time
0:25

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason MacDonald2 / 75 / 100 / 30
1Alan Belcher25 / 3952 / 680 / 00

Alan Belcher

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5

Jason MacDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4