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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rodrigo Nascimento won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1426

Elo1500

Alan BaudotvsRodrigo NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · Saturday, July 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rodrigo Nascimento won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:29

Style matchupAlan Baudot: Pressure fightervsRodrigo Nascimento: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Rodrigo Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodrigo Nascimento at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alan Baudot enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alan Baudot

Red Corner

Rodrigo Nascimento

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-410

(80%)

1426

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alan BaudotL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Oct 20

vs Parker Porter · Feb 22

KOvs Josh Parisian · Jun 22

latest

Rodrigo NascimentoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22

vs Ilir Latifi · May 23

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24

vs Alexandr Romanov · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alan BaudotMetricRodrigo Nascimento

5.36

Strikes / min

3.71

4.82

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

46%

Strike defense

44%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.02

62%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alan BaudotRodrigo Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alan Baudot(4 fights)Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -74.1|Blue +74.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alan BaudotTargetRodrigo Nascimento

By target zone

62% acc · 75%

Head

55% acc · 84%

77% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 12%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

56% acc · 60%

Distance

60% acc · 92%

95% acc · 32%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

71% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alan Baudot rounds

even

Rodrigo Nascimento rounds

Round 1Alan Baudot edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:38

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:36Control

Round 2Rodrigo Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 91

Sig Strikes

49 / 83

57.5%

Sig Str %

58.5%

73 / 104

Total Strikes

51 / 85

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

2:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rodrigo Nascimento	18 / 31	19 / 32	0 / 3
1	Alan Baudot	50 / 66	63 / 79	0 / 0
2	Rodrigo Nascimento	31 / 52	32 / 53	0 / 0
2	Alan Baudot	10 / 25	10 / 25	0 / 0

Alan Baudot

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Rodrigo Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8