Lightweight

3 Rounds

Al Iaquinta won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1411

Elo1354

Al IaquintavsRodrigo DammUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

Al Iaquinta won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:26

Style matchupAl Iaquinta: Pressure fightervsRodrigo Damm: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Damm wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Al Iaquinta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodrigo Damm at +500 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Al Iaquinta

Red Corner

Rodrigo Damm

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1411

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Rodrigo DammL2 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carvalho · Nov 12

vs Mizuto Hirota · Jun 13

vs Ivan Jorge · Feb 14

vs Rashid Magomedov · May 14

vs Evan Dunham · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Al IaquintaMetricRodrigo Damm

4.06

Strikes / min

3.50

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

5.61

61%

Strike defense

57%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.44

74%

Takedown defense

80%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Al IaquintaRodrigo Damm

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Al Iaquinta(10 fights)Rodrigo Damm(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.0|Blue -57.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Al IaquintaTargetRodrigo Damm

By target zone

37% acc · 72%

Head

30% acc · 89%

54% acc · 15%

Body

83% acc · 9%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

33% acc · 2%

By position

41% acc · 97%

Distance

32% acc · 100%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Al Iaquinta rounds

even

Rodrigo Damm rounds

Round 1Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 221

Sig Strikes

57 / 177

40.7%

Sig Str %

32.7%

93 / 221

Total Strikes

57 / 177

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rodrigo Damm	16 / 66	16 / 66	0 / 1
1	Al Iaquinta	30 / 77	30 / 77	0 / 0
2	Rodrigo Damm	28 / 78	28 / 78	0 / 4
2	Al Iaquinta	43 / 92	43 / 92	0 / 0
3	Rodrigo Damm	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 0
3	Al Iaquinta	20 / 52	20 / 52	0 / 0

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Rodrigo Damm

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7