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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Al Iaquinta won · U-DEC R3

Elo1411

Elo1356

Al IaquintavsPiotr HallmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · Saturday, October 26, 2013Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Al Iaquinta won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAl Iaquinta: Pressure fightervsPiotr Hallmann: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Al Iaquinta wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Al Iaquinta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Al Iaquinta at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Piotr Hallmann enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Piotr Hallmann threatens submissions; Al Iaquinta has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Al Iaquinta

Red Corner

Piotr Hallmann

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1411

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Piotr HallmannL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 13

SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jun 14

vs Gleison Tibau · Sep 14

KOvs Magomed Mustafaev · Jun 15

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Al IaquintaMetricPiotr Hallmann

4.06

Strikes / min

3.98

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

61%

Strike defense

58%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

2.55

74%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Al IaquintaPiotr Hallmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Al Iaquinta(10 fights)Piotr Hallmann(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.4|Blue -55.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Al IaquintaTargetPiotr Hallmann

By target zone

37% acc · 73%

Head

30% acc · 61%

71% acc · 18%

Body

64% acc · 27%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

53% acc · 12%

By position

41% acc · 88%

Distance

37% acc · 98%

63% acc · 6%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Al Iaquinta rounds

even

Piotr Hallmann rounds

Round 1Piotr Hallmann edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:34

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:58

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns2

Control1:22

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 197

Sig Strikes

66 / 176

42%

Sig Str %

37%

87 / 200

Total Strikes

91 / 204

2 / 8

TDs

3 / 9

22%

TD %

51%

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Piotr Hallmann	25 / 66	38 / 79	1 / 1
1	Al Iaquinta	15 / 61	15 / 62	0 / 4
2	Piotr Hallmann	19 / 47	21 / 51	1 / 3
2	Al Iaquinta	39 / 76	40 / 77	0 / 1
3	Piotr Hallmann	22 / 63	32 / 74	1 / 5
3	Al Iaquinta	31 / 60	32 / 61	2 / 3

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Piotr Hallmann

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6