Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mitch Clarke won · SUB R2

Elo1411

Elo1362

Al IaquintavsMitch ClarkeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mitch Clarke won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:57

Model Prediction: Al Iaquinta wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Mitch Clarke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Al Iaquinta at -430 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mitch Clarke threatens submissions; Al Iaquinta has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Al Iaquinta has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Al Iaquinta has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Al Iaquinta

Red Corner

Mitch Clarke

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1411

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Mitch ClarkeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Anton Kuivanen · Jul 12

vs John Maguire · Jun 13

vs Michael Chiesa · Apr 15

SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16

KOvs Alex White · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Al IaquintaMetricMitch Clarke

4.06

Strikes / min

2.35

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

61%

Strike defense

47%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.64

74%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Al IaquintaMitch Clarke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Al Iaquinta(10 fights)Mitch Clarke(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -231.0|Blue +231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Al IaquintaTargetMitch Clarke

By target zone

63% acc · 77%

Head

25% acc · 38%

100% acc · 23%

Body

40% acc · 25%

Leg

75% acc · 38%

By position

75% acc · 46%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

64% acc · 54%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Al Iaquinta rounds

even

Mitch Clarke rounds

Round 1Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control4:04

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:27

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 19

Sig Strikes

8 / 21

81%

Sig Str %

31%

31 / 40

Total Strikes

20 / 34

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:31

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mitch Clarke	7 / 15	17 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Al Iaquinta	10 / 16	28 / 37	0 / 0	1
2	Mitch Clarke	1 / 6	3 / 8	0 / 0	1
2	Al Iaquinta	3 / 3	3 / 3	1 / 1	1

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Mitch Clarke

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7