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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Al Iaquinta won · U-DEC R3

Elo1411

Elo1466

Al IaquintavsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Al Iaquinta won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAl Iaquinta: Pressure fightervsKevin Lee: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Al Iaquinta wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Al Iaquinta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Al Iaquinta at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Al Iaquinta has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Al Iaquinta

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1411

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Al IaquintaMetricKevin Lee

4.06

Strikes / min

3.88

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

61%

Strike defense

50%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

3.18

74%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Al IaquintaKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Al Iaquinta(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -54.9|Blue +54.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Al IaquintaTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

39% acc · 84%

Head

24% acc · 82%

46% acc · 12%

Body

60% acc · 15%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

39% acc · 96%

Distance

23% acc · 72%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 4%

Ground

73% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Al Iaquinta rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:36

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:10Control

Round 3Al Iaquinta edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:12

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 122

Sig Strikes

39 / 142

43.7%

Sig Str %

31.7%

50 / 125

Total Strikes

51 / 155

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 8

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

4:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	14 / 51	16 / 54	0 / 2	0
1	Al Iaquinta	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 0	1
2	Kevin Lee	10 / 21	20 / 31	1 / 1	2
2	Al Iaquinta	5 / 10	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
3	Kevin Lee	15 / 70	15 / 70	0 / 5	0
3	Al Iaquinta	25 / 72	25 / 72	0 / 1	0

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19