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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R5
Elo1411
Elo1429
Donald Cerrone

Al IaquintavsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAl Iaquinta: Pressure fightervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Al Iaquinta wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Al Iaquinta at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Al Iaquinta
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1411
Elo
1429
39
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Al IaquintaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Diego Sanchez · Apr 17
L
vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18
W
vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18
L
vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19
L
KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21
latest
Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20
L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20
L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Al IaquintaMetricDonald Cerrone
4.06
Strikes / min
4.41
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
61%
Strike defense
53%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
1.16
74%
Takedown defense
73%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1608 vs 1658Strikes53.1 vs 43.7Takedowns0.7 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.37Form0.5 vs 0.5
Al IaquintaDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Al Iaquinta(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -17.6|Blue +17.6
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Al IaquintaTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

49
30% acc · 54%
Head
87
29% acc · 63%
23
61% acc · 26%
Body
17
68% acc · 12%
18
90% acc · 20%
Leg
34
100% acc · 25%

By position

90
40% acc · 100%
Distance
129
38% acc · 93%
0
Clinch
3
100% acc · 2%
0
Ground
6
43% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Al Iaquinta rounds
1
even
3
Donald Cerrone rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Al Iaquinta edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
1Knockdowns
Round 4Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
1Knockdowns
Round 5Donald Cerrone edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
43Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
90 / 223
Sig Strikes
138 / 361
41%
Sig Str %
37.6%
90 / 223
Total Strikes
140 / 363
0 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:22

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Donald Cerrone20 / 4520 / 450 / 00
1Al Iaquinta19 / 5819 / 580 / 10
2Donald Cerrone21 / 6821 / 680 / 00
2Al Iaquinta24 / 5924 / 590 / 00
3Donald Cerrone28 / 7829 / 790 / 00
3Al Iaquinta18 / 3918 / 390 / 10
4Al Iaquinta9 / 209 / 200 / 10
4Donald Cerrone26 / 7227 / 730 / 00
5Donald Cerrone43 / 9843 / 980 / 00
5Al Iaquinta20 / 4720 / 470 / 20

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37